After giving it some thought I’m calling it: 2013 is going to be huge. We’re going to see some big moves and more inflection points than an engineering class playing Twister. Here’s my list.
A mobile/tablet game generates over $100M
And yes, it’ll be free-to-play. If I was a betting man, I’d put my chips on NaturalMotion or Supercell.
A tablet game has a $5M development budget
Related to the prediction above but not necessarily the same game. Tablet gaming is entering its most profitable phase. High production with a price tag to match. Watch for the older gamers (people like me who whine about wanting ‘real games’ on tablet) to fuel this market.
Zynga goes private
Yes, I keep banging on about it. Yes it’s going to happen. Wall St likes predictability. Do you honestly think that’s the place for a company transitioning its entire business from Facebook to mobile while also experimenting with social gambling? I’m guessing Q2.
Twitter gets acquired
Ooh, controversial. At some point the current investors look around and realise that the entire stock has now been re-sold at least five times. Hard to see how Google doesn’t buy it.
I actually contemplate buying an Android phone
The post-Jobs Apple is, if not weaker, certainly more predictable. Not being impressed with the iPhone 5, Google’s latest Gmail iOS app is good enough to get me curious about Android for the very first time. A milestone has been reached: automatic iPhone purchase no longer enabled.
The secondary market starts to grow in Europe
Possibly more hope than prediction, Europe desperately needs a more active secondary market. Founders tend to angel-invest more often than other people. Put money in their hands and it’ll get recirculated.
Kids begin to take control
More and more kids are creating games for themselves. The next Notch or Zuck will probably be under fifteen. I expect them to start appearing on the radar in 2013.
A16z buys its first company
Given the services infrastructure they’ve already built up, and the return they need to make on their $2.7B funds, it’s only a matter of time before a16z start buying companies outright.
Europe continues to muddle through
Nothing much changes in Europe: UK inflation continues to rise, EU economies continue to slump, bank lending stays tight.
Investors realise why they left enterprise in the first place
It’s hard. And takes more money than consumer. Oh Christ there’s a nine month sales cycle? Back to consumer for 2014.
People start to see just how smart Amazon is
Amazon has a retail platform, a merchandise team, a mobile platform, a games studio. And now they’re financing TV and movie content for kids. The next Disney is staring us in the face. And they are very, very smart. Watch them lead consolidation.
Lots of startups die but nobody panics
Many startups will run out of money in 2013 and hit the wall. This is the market functioning as it should. Nobody will freak out. Especially the amateur angel investors. Okay?
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