My 2013 predictions

by Dylan on December 10, 2012

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After giving it some thought I’m calling it: 2013 is going to be huge. We’re going to see some big moves and more inflection points than an engineering class playing Twister. Here’s my list.

A mobile/tablet game generates over $100M

And yes, it’ll be free-to-play. If I was a betting man, I’d put my chips on NaturalMotion or Supercell.

A tablet game has a $5M development budget

Related to the prediction above but not necessarily the same game. Tablet gaming is entering its most profitable phase. High production with a price tag to match. Watch for the older gamers (people like me who whine about wanting ‘real games’ on tablet) to fuel this market.

Zynga goes private

Yes, I keep banging on about it. Yes it’s going to happen. Wall St likes predictability. Do you honestly think that’s the place for a company transitioning its entire business from Facebook to mobile while also experimenting with social gambling? I’m guessing Q2.

Twitter gets acquired

Ooh, controversial. At some point the current investors look around and realise that the entire stock has now been re-sold at least five times. Hard to see how Google doesn’t buy it.

I actually contemplate buying an Android phone

The post-Jobs Apple is, if not weaker, certainly more predictable. Not being impressed with the iPhone 5, Google’s latest Gmail iOS app is good enough to get me curious about Android for the very first time. A milestone has been reached: automatic iPhone purchase no longer enabled.

The secondary market starts to grow in Europe

Possibly more hope than prediction, Europe desperately needs a more active secondary market. Founders tend to angel-invest more often than other people. Put money in their hands and it’ll get recirculated.

Kids begin to take control

More and more kids are creating games for themselves. The next Notch or Zuck will probably be under fifteen. I expect them to start appearing on the radar in 2013.

A16z buys its first company

Given the services infrastructure they’ve already built up, and the return they need to make on their $2.7B funds, it’s only a matter of time before a16z start buying companies outright.

Europe continues to muddle through

Nothing much changes in Europe: UK inflation continues to rise, EU economies continue to slump, bank lending stays tight.

Investors realise why they left enterprise in the first place

It’s hard. And takes more money than consumer. Oh Christ there’s a nine month sales cycle? Back to consumer for 2014.

People start to see  just how smart Amazon is

Amazon has a retail platform, a merchandise team, a mobile platform, a games studio. And now they’re financing TV and movie content for kids. The next Disney is staring us in the face. And they are very, very smart. Watch them lead consolidation.

Lots of startups die but nobody panics

Many startups will run out of money in 2013 and hit the wall. This is the market functioning as it should. Nobody will freak out. Especially the amateur angel investors. Okay?

  • http://twitter.com/alconroy Alan Conroy

    With regard to the Gmail iOS app, this app looks and acts better on iOS comapred to the same app on my android phone (Sammy G SII)

    • dylancollins

      Interesting. Still doesn’t invalidate the point though: Google are definitely getting better at this whole mobile thing.

      • http://twitter.com/alconroy Alan Conroy

        Indeed, but I do find it odd that one of their core products seems to work better on a competitor platform than their own platform

  • ei_dscanlon

    Eh, surely there are no “amateur angel investors” left? Didn’t you scare them all away with your post from a few months back? :)

  • http://twitter.com/rodolfor Rodolfo Rosini

    I’d add two more: Microsoft goes balls deep with games M&A in 2013 (possibly acquiring Valve) and also buys several social/MMO/mobile games companies in Europe. EA explodes/implodes, mass layoffs, CEO leaves, possibly going private as well before Zynga.

    • dylancollins

      MS have certainly been quiet and equally certainly are going to need content for Surface strategy. With EA, I’d put a small wager on Kristian Segerstråle being CEO by year end.

  • JC

    Thanks a million Dylan (kids will begin to take control) I hope you’re right :D -Jordan @CaseyGames

  • http://www.converser.io/ Barry Nolan

    Just the 8 more.

    Frictionless purchasing in app, a là hailo or hotel tonight will mainstream, transforming the ROI and prominence of mobile apps

    Internet of things will expand from novelty to utility. Your home alarm, credit card, delayed flight will start conversing with you, primarily through mobile apps.

    Enterprise apps will morph from ‘woot! – we have an app!’ to apps that provide real utility to the customer. The change is reminiscent of the first ‘PDF’ websites, to todays self-serve and transactual websites. In other words, solve problems.

    There will be legislation governing what apps can track/access only with user permission – location, contacts, graph etc.

    Apple will clam down on spammy, advertising/upgrade buttons in pre-schoolers apps.

    Blackberry and windows mobile fail. Android will increasingly be forked away from google, especially in the Far East.

    Apple TV will join with a broadcaster/production company/cable provider to make tv shows/movies on-demand apps and state aware. Torrents will drive this

    Apple TV will open up the platform for third-party apps – from games, to yoga, to live broadcasts.

  • Eoghan McCabe

    Really solid list. Just one quibble: I think your enterprise-related prediction is too early. 2014 is the earliest that might happen. I believe we’ve not nearly got to the point where enterprise becomes the hottest VC investment category. It will take most of the VC community longer to adjust. And after that happens, it’ll take 12-18 months for those who blindly followed this trend to realise that enterprise is indeed “hard”.

    • dylancollins

      Meet you back here in a year to see who was right!

  • Guest

    It’s a date!

  • http://www.tipadeal.com/ marvickjames

    One more prediction Nokia luch very soon amazing technology:p

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